SOBRE O
LIVRO - A GLOBALIZAÇÃO E OS
TRINTA ANOS DE INDEXAÇÃO NO
BRASIL
Globalization has finally and really arrived: the Wall
Street implosion with the 2006/15 subprime crisis and the
global banking and government frauds to rescue banks had and
still have the potential to generate a fiscal crisis whose
outcome could be the beginning of a high inflation period in
the first world or worse: a global hyperinflation like in
Hitler's Germany.
The book "Globalization
and thirty years of indexing in Brazil" of André de Oliveira
Guimarães, JAC - Graphic & publisher, São José dos Campos,
SP, Brazil, published in 2000, is a historic, political,
legal, economic, financial and sociological SCRIPT on
inflation in Brazil. In 319 pages, the author tells how the
"indexing" or "monetary correction" or "monetary update"
perpetuated inflation which might cause hyperinflation in
the 80s and 90s.
A "restatement"
or "indexing" or "monetary correction" or "monetary update"
established in 1964 and extinct thirty years later, in 1994,
with the Real Plan, it was the financial instrument that
- along with the military dictatorship - has destroyed
the state and society, producing the CHAOS of the current
days, that adds itself to globalization, producing an even
greater CHAOS whose result is the ruin of civilization.
Socialism / Communism failed in the twentieth century and
now in the XXI century is the capitalism / neoliberalism the
system about to collapse, showing that political corruption
is basically the big cancer of any system that be adopted.
With the implosion of capitalism, communism won again space,
being a flag used by swindlers everywhere to deploy
dictatorships, path taken by Brazil since 2003, when it
began the catastrophic Lula's age.
The great
economic progress in Brazil, an emerging country, occurred
from 1994, dissipated because of the state's agony,
corrupted in all its spheres and powers since ever, and of
the enormous pressures imposed on the states by the
exponentially growing social exclusion generated by
globalization. Democracy hard won back in 1988 after 21
years of military dictatorship (1964-1985) was extinguished
again by the brutal dictatorship of corruption that came to
take shape from 2003, when started the current civil
dictatorship, the Lula's age. Four economic / political
processes overlap: thirty years of indexing and inflation
(1964-1994), globalization (since 1990), the civil
dictatorship begun in 2003 in Brazil and now, since 2006, a
financial crisis generated by United States that at least
took the time to anticipate a decade in a matter of months,
exponentially catalyzing globalization, which was already a
process of acceleration of historical events.
Threescenariosexistedforthe USsince 2008: 1)
experiencea
currencyovershootingashappenedin Brazil1999,
with the dollar
stabilizing atnew level,
leaving the Americansa littlepoorer;
2) experience theprevioussetting
andthen
the beginning of a"inertial
inflation" as in
Brazilthe late70sand early80s,becoming thenewest"banana
republic"; 3)
experience, from
night today,a German
hyperinflationasthe'20swith the public
security holdersdisposing oftheir positions"in
a herdeffect"
similar to the
stock exchangesandfleeing togold
and other real assets.Scenario 1iswhat happenedfrom2008 to2015, with the
dollar hasdepreciatedtoo. The collapse
of theglobalfinancial system
has not happened,has been
continuallypostponed,
delayed.
In the book
that deals with inflation in Brazil there are 7 chapters:
the first
telling the number of cases of hyperinflation in the world;
the second
explaining the mechanism of "indexing" created by the
government (whose main objective was "dephase" your expenses
and "update" their income, creating fabulous budget gains in
"real" terms - the words or verbs "to dephase" and "to
update" or "to correct" are empircal terms created to
express the reality), with the plausible excuse that it (the
"monetary correction") was a modern instrument of balance
guarantee for long term contracts;
For instance:
if inflation were 20% in april, "monetary correction" for
respective period was 20% too. So if a value to pay in the
moment of contract on april, 1 was US$ 1,000.00, in may, 1
this value would be US$ 1,200.00 and the creditor would have
to receive more US$ 200.00, the "monetary correction" to
compansate the "real" loss of value caused by inflation. Who
lost was the debtor. That if would be "correction" for it
provided by law. In the case of government, when it was the
debtor, it did not pay "monetary correction" for creditors (expenses)
and charged "monetary correction" of its debtors (revenues).
Or notpaidorpartiallypaid. This paragraph exists only in
this English version to explain more accurately what is "monetary
correction", an insanity, an economic aids;
the third
explains how banks and other financial institutions adapted
themselves to inflation and started to earn outrageous
profits "prefixing" future inflation in their credits (earning
"real" interests of more than 100% per year);
the fourth
shows how the government did "dephase" their main expenses:
creating wage laws of automatic wage "indexation" that
resulted, after thirty years, about 800% of salary"phase
displacement", which meant that wages lost about 90% of its
"real value ", what was the main ingredient for the
emergence of a new class of professional swindlers
politicians: the of former syndicalists;
the fifth
shows how successive "economic plans" that allegedly tried
to fight inflation produced the famous "salary losses" and "skeletons"
("restatement" or "monetary correction" due and not paid on
investments and several contracts), always keeping inflation
at a "interesting" level (a controlled hyperinflation);
What the Fed
did since 2008 with the "quantitative easing", the money
printting, was it: a controlled inflation, generalized
inflation of financial assets to compensate in "real terms"
the deflation in "nominal terms" in the price of real estate
assets, doing the losses of value in "real terms" reduce
themselves. To compensate the deflation in real estate
assets, the Fed created inflation in all others assets. But
with it, the Fed also produced losses in the value of the
credits to receive that the banks had, for these also had
fixed value in nominal terms. So, to compensate losses in
real estate business, the Fed created losses in several
others segments, including the increase in the public debt
made by government that was funded by the Fed printting
money, what was the cause of inflation, trillions of dollars,
what caused losses for the holders of the treasuries. In
initial moments of the inflationary bubbles, several
distortions are caused and usually the wanted result for
government only occur after much inflation. The "quantitative
easing" made by Fed only got do the situation stay "them by
them", in other words, nothing changed. To solve all
problems now, it will be necessary even more inflation, much
more. But it's impossible, for it would cause a flight to
gold with the public debt holders still remaining abandoning
the treasuries from night to day, causing a default on this
obligations that would carry to hyperinflation, because the
Fed would have to print money to buy public debt at an
exponential rate, causing a vicious cycle. That's the truth
about the real situation of US that doesn't is shown in the
mainstream media, whether in the US, whether in any place.
Are few people who speak about this, people like Marc Faber,
Peter Schiff, Johm Williams, Michael Pento, Gerald Celente,
... This reality was lived in Brazil for years. One year of
inflation is almost a lost decade. In US already are seven
years lost with a controlled inflation, something that didn't
solve the main matter: the solvency of the system, that
includes now the public sector. If weren't the money
printting, the default already would have happened. The QE
didn't produce a recovery, did to avoid a collapse, the
dollar collapse, because government hadn't enough revenue to
rescue financial institutions, the bail-outs. And Marc Faber,
for instance, says, that Fed won't rise interest rates, for
if it do it, the government knock in: with 10% of average
interest rate over the debt, there is more than 50% of the
annualfederaltax revenue of spent only with
interest. It's also for this that there is no rise in
interest rates, for not knock in the nation. An apocalypse.
And even there is the matter of derivatives, the leverage,
another apocalypse apart. An endless nightmare, an affair as
we like, a novel much better than that ones of the TV.
This paragraph exists only in this English version of this
page.
the sixth
shows how the Real Plan 1994 finally won the "inflation and
as was the stabilization mechanism of" relative prices ",
the URV, Real Value Unit (RVU);
the seventh
discusses various legal, political, economic and
sociological problems produced by thirty years of "indexing".
What could
happenor evenmaywith the United Statescan be seenin
detailby analyzing therecent past of
Brazilin thisunprecedented workof 319pagesoriginally
publishedin 2000,work startedin
1992 andcompletedin 2000, six
yearsafter stabilizationof the economyin
1994(which lastednearly 20 years andis now overagain).An updatewas in
progressat the end of2007, butwassuspended in view
of the hugevolumeofinformation
producedby the2006-2015
subprimecrisis.Thisvolumeinformationis inconstant
exponential growth.Thescale of the crisisbecameimpossible,
atleast for the moment,
identifyits real
nature. There are severalhypotheses, all
of themplausible:
1) Traditionalfraud like the
occurredintheEnronandWorldComin 2001 (the big banks of
the2007-09crisiswere
already involvedin the 2001Enronscandaland at that timethe
governmentalways knewitand did
nothing);
2)a
fraudyes, butsponsoredby
the US governmentto
destabilize theeuroand make
submergethe emerging economiesof the BRICs
(Brazil, Russia, India andChina)and
ensureAmerican supremacy;
and
3) a
crisis sponsoredby the US
governmentin order toproduce a
world chaosdue tounknown
military objectives unknown by the publicto be
implementedin the medium term,
something so grandasahighly
catastrophicastronomical event.
The main
countriesundereconomic
collapsethreatis the United StatesandEngland,
then camethe
collapse of theeuro, making
a worthybiblicalapocalyptic
collapse: all major currencieswould becomedust.The financial crisis of2006/2015if haveall thepossible
developmentsmay causethe 1929crisis
andthe
depressionof the 30sseemsomething
quitesoft, something like a "walk
in the park". On the Internetandin TVswarming
forecasts.The most notableare those of
people likeJimRogers (former partner
ofinvestorGeorge Soros),
MarcFaber
(Swiss journalist withPHDin economics),
PeterSchiff(investment company
executiveandeconomical
congressional aide ofRonPaul[former
candidate US
presidential]), NourielRoubini(professor
of economics at New Yorkand creator of
RGEMonitor,economicadvisorycompanyweb site),
JohnWilliams(shadowstats.com
economist) andGeraldCelente(Trends Researchinstitute
researcher).
Were
completed seven years ofzerointerestin the United States, from
September2008
until mid2015.Trillions of dollarswere printed and
theUS public debtdoubledin
nominal termsduring the period,while theannualfederaltax
collectiongrew by less than25% in nominal
terms
For manyother analysts
nothingmorewill happen.Thecrisis has served
to show thatany predictionbecameuseless,because the
volatilityof all factorsbecamestupid.
The crisis has shownhowridiculousarethe economicforecasts
accurate to withintenths of apercentage point
andhow muchthere isofliein the
financial markets, inauditing andrisk
ratingcompanies and alsogovernments.In
Brazil,very fewworksthat deal
withinflationalready start
earlywith
derivatives and integralsto
explain whythe price of breadrose by 5% and
why itis
4.76% loss inpurchasing power.
In ourbookthere is no derivatives, norabstract
macroeconomic data, justwhat happened in
people's pockets, the phenomenon
itself, which was nothing morethanpuregovernmentslutty,
it was a reality causedon purposeby the
government.
Few otherworksdealing
with the subjectat a levela littlecloser
to realityaregrotesque
plagiarismof the bookheremade
available andwho did not getto the nitty-gritty.
In this work
there arenotderivatives, integralsand econometric models.
The story isjustwhat happened to
thepeople's pocketsover time, how
and how mucheach one wonorlostand howwas theindexation mechanism, which
is what matters
for those whodid not liveunder
hyperinflation.At the time,in 2000, many people
praisedthe workwere still
innocentand has not beenaccused of
anythingbefore.Almost all
praisedwere reported,
prosecuted and
even imprisoned, while others have
not addressedseriouslyandshamefully
against the current crisisasFernandoHenriqueCardoso.
This bookmade available
herein
PDFformat (click the
linkbelow toopen a new window
with the bookalready openand clickthe
icon tosaveyour copy with
the name you want and inthefolder you want).
The book is notpolitical work,
is notcommunist,is not
apocalypticreligious book.
It is a work
producedby a person whowas 30 yearsoldin 2000and lived
inthe time ofhyperinflationin
Brazilin the 80sand 90s. Made by who lived the
history. Economic stability is like health, while have
itself, don't give itself worth, only know itself when lose
it. And once time lost, it's hard to recover.
The author,ANDRÉDE OLIVEIRAGUIMARÃES, holds
a Bachelor ofLawformed byUNITAU,
University of
Taubaté, SP, in 1998,
andis a
mechanicaltechnician trainedbyETEP,
Technical School
EverardoPassos,SãoJosédos Campos, Brazil,
in 1988.He
studiedanother yearofmechanical
engineering.Training in thelegal field and theexactarea waswhatfacilitated
therealization of thisfairwork.
His
experiencein the commercial
representationbranch inhyperinflation
timewhen
monthly inflationwasabove 30%(whichacquaintedmore
than 2,200% in the year) in 1992was whatled him
toinitiallyprepare amanualofcoexistencewith hyperinflation, one
"witchcraft
manual" to "advance fixing
futurecurrency
values", because at that time thegeneral thought
wasthat inflationwouldnotend,it wasa situation that
had lasted fordecades.
Were nearly20 years of
economic stability, from 1994 to
2014, being again the Brazilian
economyruinedby the returnof
inertial inflation, a disaster thatwas "counted bean"since the start ofLula's Agein
2003, an Age ofcivil
dictatorship, incompetence andcorruption.All
progresssince1994onwardswith the economic
predictabilitythat made possible
thelow
interest ratesandthe gradual
increase infinancing termswent downhill
fromDilma
Rousseff governent, returning
Brazil to the1993hellwiththe country
definitelymissing thetrain of history
and nowrelegatedto their fate: being
a bananabanana
republicof SouthAmerica.
The DOWNLOAD
ofthe bookis FREE,
andyour copyfor personal use
or printingfor personal use isAUTHORIZED. Theexcerptcitationin other works
freely available isAUTHORIZEDSINCECITEDTHE SOURCE(this
site) and AUTHOR
(André de Oliveira Guimarães).
The bookcan be consulted
by simplecuriosityorbe used asa research resource formultidisciplinary
university researchas well as forhistorical or
legal-chronological research.
Already
there is a version in English (about only the 319 pages of
the book of 2000), but it only will be available when the
next book (about suprime crisis of 2008 in US) be finished.
It has more than 600 pages (in Portuguese), including the US
crisis. The next book will have more than 5000 pages,
including US crisis, the book of 2000 translated to English
and the affair "Freemasonryirregularity"
that is the nitty-grittybehind US
crisis and also what was behind the Nazism and, such as now,
almost destroyed the World by different ways, before the
weapons, now the money printting. This
paragraph exists only in this English version of this page.
For Americans,
is a little piece of history about what may happen to you. I
hope it won’t happen, but Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and Peter
Schiff say US perhaps be the 1964-1994’s Brazil or 1933’s
Germany.
In the
presentation "Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the next
AIG to fall?" on January 2010 in which the deal was the US
crisis of 2008, Marc Faber, economist and publisher of the "The
Gloom, Boom and Doom Report", spoke about how to survive
during hyperinflation, how is the life in this situation. It
was nothing more, nothing less than what was spoken in our
book, what happens with the financial assets. Inflation
doesn't is a phenomenon at random, it is desired by
governments, governments wants it. And all will do to hold
it at a interesting level, nor little, nor exponentially
uncontrollable, for in the first case doesn't serve to
produce phase displacement in real terms for expenses and in
the second doesn't enable the scheme of fraude with the
creditors, for become impossible the situation continue
indefinitely. The danger is a situation like the one of US:
money printting to avoid default and it becomes exponential,
carrying to so high hyperinflation that the money would
become dust whitin hours. In banana republics always there
is something to serve as monetary standard to solve in
future the situation with other currency, what doesn't occur
with the dollar, it already is the standard, the
international standard, and now without the gold standard.
If it ended, the global standard ends. It's because of it
the gold reached almost US$ 2,000 an ounce. But in a
situation like this, whithin hours the value of gold could
doesn't fit in the calculator display. The CHAOS is so great
that the people doesn't want believe that could happen, nor
the government. And it's because nobody believes that the
government gets postpone indefinitely the problem. And there
is more: the real problem only will happen in the next term
of office, when who has to behave now won't be there more.
The bomb stays for the next president. This
paragraph exists only in this English version of this page.
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