This site went live in July
2009 and now complete, so, six years. At that time it was at
the height the financial crisis the United States, the "subprime".
There was a huge risk of hyperinflation in the US and that
is what motivated us mount this site, as inflation is our
"leitmotiv": in 2000 we published in print a book about the
history of inflation in Brazil: "Globalization and thirty
years of indexing in Brazil ", with 319 pages.
From 2009 we begin to write
a new book, this time about hyperinflation in the United
States. He had over 600 ready-made pages and we were going
post it here to download. The crisis however was advancing
and becoming more acute. So, during the research for this
new book, we discover a theme directly linked to the root of
the crisis: the irregularity of the esoteric initiatory
orders. From this, the focus of work has changed and is now
describe what comes to be it. We reached 5000 pages ready (already
added 600 initial) to serve as an introduction to the
subject already set, but with the pending conclusion
regarding the typing.
We were then working in these 5000 pages, but every day new
earthquakes occurred in politics and made us come here to
the site comment on them. So it was until it finally reached
the stage of stagnation, boredom and melancholy 2014: loose
"mensaleiros" (bandits of Lula's Party), STF (Supreme Court
of Justice of the country) ruined, financial crisis in mild
fire (with everyone believing in the supposed recovery).
In the United States,
even though unemployment has been reduced in official
statistics, in reality it remains high and wages remain low.
There are now nearly ten years of crisis since 2006, of
which the last seven were of zero interest from the Fed, the
US central bank. And they are also seven years of printing
money, SEVEN YEARS PRINTING MONEY! The country broke, just
like Greece, with the difference that Greece has no way to
print money. The real estate bubble burst in 2006 and since
then cash injections have been done to save the collapse of
banks worldwide. But on September 15, 2008 a major bank
broke: Lehman Brothers. It was very expensive rescue him.
Thereafter the crisis that began in 2006 came an explicit
phase, with a serial crashes in several financial
institutions. The damage to the housing crisis exceeded the
value added in the stock all US banks. It was as if all the
country's banks had broken at once. Billions of dollars have
been credited electronically to prevent a systemic collapse
in the US and then in the world. Trillions of dollars have
been issued for the bailouts, redemptions, because there was
not enough money for a general government bailout, the
country broke with the banks. Another aggravating factor of
the crisis was the enormous complexity of the mathematics
involved in financial fraud and the stupid leverage of
derivatives, an enigma even to Fed officials, the Federal
Reserve, the central bank. Trillions of dollars have also
been issued for it, does not know the true extent of chaos.
The result was to put out a fire with gasoline. Although the
situation is now under control for media effects, backstage
reality is that the general breakdown was postponed by
creating an inflationary bubble that served to further
lubricate the financial fraud before ongoing, taking place
now still a problem greater, infinitely greater, whose real
dimension makes it look 2008 and 1929 to be "a walk in the
park". It is for this reason that interest remained for
SEVEN YEARS ZERO. It is an economy in an induced coma. If
interest rates rise, or rise too high, the arteries of the
patient explode.
Public debt in 2015: USD 18.3 trillion (USD 9.2 trillion
when the crisis began in 2008)
GDP in 2015: USD 17.8
trillion (USD 14 trillion when the crisis began in 2008)
Annual federal
expenditures budgeted in 2015: USD 3.6 trillion
Federal tax collection in
2015: USD 3.1 trillion (USD 2.5 trillion when the crisis
began in 2008)
Current federal deficit
public in 2015: USD 495 billion
SOURCE: http://www.usdebtclock.org
Thus, in nominal terms, since 2008 the GDP rose 27% (which
gives a nominal growth of 3.5% average over 7 years).
But the federal tax revenue in nominal terms since 2008,
rose only 24%.
Meanwhile, public debt since 2008 has risen 99% in nominal
terms, ie doubled.
Before, in 2008, the annual federal tax revenue represented
27% of public debt or public debt was 3.68 years of federal
tax revenues.
Now, in 2015, the annual federal tax revenue is 16.9% of
public debt or public debt represents 5.9 years of federal
tax revenues.
Only it was not worse because trillions of dollars were
printed. This impression was because the dollars printed
actually are revenue needed to fund the bulk breakdown of
the entire American banking system, revenues that would be
achieved by issuing new government bonds, as there wouldn't
be buyers for purely physical shortage of people in such
large quantities and also for lack of buyers because of the
risk that it would represent for investment. Thus, printing
money occured simply because there wouldn't be those who
could afford so many trillions of dollars of public spending
to recover USD 4.4 trillion in actual damages which are
actually a lost leverage basis of standardized or
derivatives business that - if were followed Basel rule -
would represent potential losses of up to 53 trillion of
dollars, and the rules of Basel at that time were not being
followed, the maximum leverage allowed for business (12X)
was being circumvented, with cases of 35X and even 100X.
Thus, the government was forced to print money to save the
banking sector block (the trillions of losses on real estate
business accounted for an amount greater than the value on
the stock all the country's banks added, was in practice as
if all the banks in the country all had broken).
There was an inflation gap in 2008-09 with products rising
100, 150% while the other like properties fell 30, 40, 50%.
It was created then a huge distortion in the economy,
produced by inflation generated by printing money, which
made the price of imports rise. In official rates,
manipulated, inflation has remained relatively low as usual,
but in reality the situation experienced in the US in
2008-09 is something like what happened in 2013 to 2015
Brazil actually, even a bit worse. And it was objectified by
the government. The idea was even produce inflation, for
with the generalized prices of economy rising, nominal
property prices in fall would have a small compensation in
real terms, ie would fall, but not much.
The great danger of this strategy was to produce a high
inflation at the point of making the public debt with zero
interest an investment with a high level of damage, thus
excluding investors and leading the country to default on
the public debt. This situation happened in part. Instead of
investors fleeing the titles, they stopped buying, as did
the countries buyers of titles like China.
But the lack of buyers
was the number one problem. There was problem number two,
the flight of investors, which would further reduce the
prices of securities, leading to a "herd effect". It was
because of this that started the "quantitative easing," or
QE, in the case the QE1, the QE2, the Twist operation and
after the unlimited QE3 which reached its final stage now (mid-2015)
considering the initial programming . And QE4 is an
anticipated event in 2008 that has not yet begun.
The big investors began to flee the public debt bonds in
2006, when housing prices began to fall and the economist
Nouriel Roubini had predicted the collapse. Then the price
of gold began to rise, almost quadrupling in value taking
into account the mid-2000s levels and the level it reached
after the crisis, verging USD 2,000 an ounce.
From then on the space to flight of "treasuries" (the public
debt) began to disappear, that is, investors began to stay
without options and the mass abandonment of the bonds would
lead to an unprecedented collapse. It began what was behoved
call the "Great Recession", but in fact what began was a
"New Great Depression", with potential to be infinitely
worse than that happened in 1929.
What was tried to avoid
in the United States since 2008 with money printing was
precisely the situation in Greece. If she left the eurozone,
the economy would fall into the void, imploding. Even with
the adoption of the old currency, the drachma, would have
hyperinflation because of the whole system reboot from a
point of high turbulence: speculation, "overshooting"
monstrous exchange, economic depression, very high public
deficit and ungovernability. This would be the situation of
the United States from 2008, if weren't printing money. This
money printing, the QE, in practice means that the country "broke".
And it was because of it all there was a strong military
preparedness to contain an internal civil war because
Confederate States would want to separate to escape the
chaos, ceasing to be partially holders of federal
obligations, freeing up from the chaos weight.
The index "Dow Jones
Industrial" surpassed 18,000 points (in mid-2015), which in
principle would denote a thriving economy recovering, but it
is a lie, this high value was produced by inflation. This
inflation is the same that made the highest public debt of
USD 18 trillion not be so much greater in real terms than
the initial debt of USD 9.2 trillion in 2008, but at the
same time is the same inflation that denounces the very
serious economic situation in terms of activity when taking
as reference the collection of taxes: the $ 3.1 trillion
federal taxes collected annually today represent at most the
same as the $ 2.5 trillion in 2008, actually represent less,
ie, in terms of reckoned economic activity through the
collection of taxes, the situation is worse than that
experienced in 2008, that is, the economy has grown since
then nothing, only the value of financial assets, debt and
storage, all due inflation produced by printing money, that
is, everything is just an illusion, trillions of dollars
have been issued over 7 years and the country simply did not
move with the public debt increased 99% in nominal terms and
economic activity getting in even lower than the 2008 level.
So, no more shaking the global economy may suffer because
the possibilities of action of governments and central banks
have been exhausted. There was a monumental manipulation of
the gold price long ago made by the Fed / USA, with the
short selling of tons and tons of gold, which made the price
artificially decrease from USD 2,000 an ounce to today's USD
1,100 (mid-2015). Weren't this move, the US would already
have exploded.
The situation is that the
global economy is on the tightrope, is on the apex of the
knife blade ... Any movement and will be the end.
Not is only the current public debt. Future liabilities such
as pension deficits not accounted for in this time threaten
the states. In Europe, in 2011, the ECB, the European
Central Bank, almost threw in the towel. It was decided on a
loan for 3 years to failed banks. Three years have passed
and it reached 2014 in the same situation, then central bank
threw the towel, with the ECB starting to buy bonds of
countries such as did the Fed. It arrives to the situation
of Greece (it would be necessary to do a stroke of money
printing with replacement of the entire Greek debt
securities by others with 50 years of maturity). What has
happened is that the situation has simply been postponed, as
did the Fed on US situation.
The printing of money had
as objective to prevent the decomposition of the derivatives
leverage base of more than USD 100 trillion, something that
overwhelms the ability to bailout of any government, even
the US. Capitalism simply imploded and put under threat of
extinction entire states, jeopardizing civilization itself.
This is then the subject of the next book that is in
preparation and will be available here for download when
ready.
We are not here supporters of the extreme right or the
extreme left. We're just capitalism's supporters on the
condition that is honestly governed. Moreover, we are also
supporters of the idea of global government, today a basic
requirement to avoid constant economic turmoil that surpass
the intervention capacity of the States. Global governance
is an idea attacked by all ideological fronts, they preach
that be a dominating strategy, what is true. But,
paradoxically, it is something necessary in view of the
globalized world.
Other key information
today to readers: This website is not "petista" (PT is the
Lula's party and "petista" is who is of the PT party), is
anti-PT to the extreme. But this site is also against the
oligarchic system that has always existed and that makes the
State be a lie. The PT was against it when it started and
now is part of the estament (the "establishment"), ie, the
PT allied to the oligarchies and built the strongest civil
dictatorial system ever seen in history, filling with
corrupts all levels and instances of State. Communism is
against oligarchic estament as well, but we are not
communists. We advocate only that the Constitution be
complied with in a serious way, ie, positions should be
filled honestly by honest people, just that (what is enough
to progress and social peace, the common good). This is a
problem in the US too, but much less severe, and that's what
led to the chaos of Enron in 2001 and 2008 chaos:
promiscuity between government and business.
Other relevant information is also this: this work is just a
hobby, it's what we would like to see, read and hear in the
media, which no longer exists in Brazil, except for one or
another site. While it may be a contribution to that
uninformed become aware of the situation and act in support
of democracy, law, order, authority, the State, in this
regard is a useless work. The share of people with political
consciousness in Brazil does not reach 0.5% of the people,
so that by more successful that be obtained, will
be-talking-to the walls. Thus, the information posted here
are just for the pleasure of discussing the issues and is
designed for those who also like to debate ideas. The
Brazilian decay due to the ignorance of the people was
already subject portrayed in our book published in 2000 (and
available for download here). The current situation is
infinitely worse, although media repeats the mantra that
people today have more political awareness. That's a lie.
The people is over, no longer exists more and for a long
time. Lula's election in 2003 was a clear demonstration that
at that time Brazil had already been ruined. His permanence
in power for over a decade showed it also, showed how the
people were dumber each time more and more. Thus, the idea
here is to discuss the issues just for hobby, for the few
cats pinged lucid still left over to enjoy as well.
That's why we also
decided to prepare this next book about the US crisis. The
first world has entered a brutal decline phase and the
result is what we already know: the third world, the end of
the Western way of life, with the strong democracies of
Europe and North America turning into rotted civilizations
in decline as Brazil. We came to the twenty-first century
modernity, but what is seen is a medieval decay.
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