25 ABRIL 2019
13:32:06
NEXT BOOK: WILL BE ON THE SUBPRIME CRISIS OF 2008 IN THE USA
This site went live in July 2009 and now complete, so, six years. At that time it was at the height the financial crisis the United States, the "subprime". There was a huge risk of hyperinflation in the US and that is what motivated us mount this site, as inflation is our "leitmotiv": in 2000 we published in print a book about the history of inflation in Brazil: "Globalization and thirty years of indexing in Brazil ", with 319 pages.

From 2009 we begin to write a new book, this time about hyperinflation in the United States. He had over 600 ready-made pages and we were going post it here to download. The crisis however was advancing and becoming more acute. So, during the research for this new book, we discover a theme directly linked to the root of the crisis: the irregularity of the esoteric initiatory orders. From this, the focus of work has changed and is now describe what comes to be it. We reached 5000 pages ready (already added 600 initial) to serve as an introduction to the subject already set, but with the pending conclusion regarding the typing.
We were then working in these 5000 pages, but every day new earthquakes occurred in politics and made us come here to the site comment on them. So it was until it finally reached the stage of stagnation, boredom and melancholy 2014: loose "mensaleiros" (bandits of Lula's Party), STF (Supreme Court of Justice of the country) ruined, financial crisis in mild fire (with everyone believing in the supposed recovery).

In the United States, even though unemployment has been reduced in official statistics, in reality it remains high and wages remain low. There are now nearly ten years of crisis since 2006, of which the last seven were of zero interest from the Fed, the US central bank. And they are also seven years of printing money, SEVEN YEARS PRINTING MONEY! The country broke, just like Greece, with the difference that Greece has no way to print money. The real estate bubble burst in 2006 and since then cash injections have been done to save the collapse of banks worldwide. But on September 15, 2008 a major bank broke: Lehman Brothers. It was very expensive rescue him. Thereafter the crisis that began in 2006 came an explicit phase, with a serial crashes in several financial institutions. The damage to the housing crisis exceeded the value added in the stock all US banks. It was as if all the country's banks had broken at once. Billions of dollars have been credited electronically to prevent a systemic collapse in the US and then in the world. Trillions of dollars have been issued for the bailouts, redemptions, because there was not enough money for a general government bailout, the country broke with the banks. Another aggravating factor of the crisis was the enormous complexity of the mathematics involved in financial fraud and the stupid leverage of derivatives, an enigma even to Fed officials, the Federal Reserve, the central bank. Trillions of dollars have also been issued for it, does not know the true extent of chaos. The result was to put out a fire with gasoline. Although the situation is now under control for media effects, backstage reality is that the general breakdown was postponed by creating an inflationary bubble that served to further lubricate the financial fraud before ongoing, taking place now still a problem greater, infinitely greater, whose real dimension makes it look 2008 and 1929 to be "a walk in the park". It is for this reason that interest remained for SEVEN YEARS ZERO. It is an economy in an induced coma. If interest rates rise, or rise too high, the arteries of the patient explode.

Public debt in 2015: USD 18.3 trillion (USD 9.2 trillion when the crisis began in 2008)

GDP in 2015: USD 17.8 trillion (USD 14 trillion when the crisis began in 2008)

Annual federal expenditures budgeted in 2015: USD 3.6 trillion

Federal tax collection in 2015: USD 3.1 trillion (USD 2.5 trillion when the crisis began in 2008)

Current federal deficit public in 2015: USD 495 billion

SOURCE: http://www.usdebtclock.org

Thus, in nominal terms, since 2008 the GDP rose 27% (which gives a nominal growth of 3.5% average over 7 years).
But the federal tax revenue in nominal terms since 2008, rose only 24%.
Meanwhile, public debt since 2008 has risen 99% in nominal terms, ie doubled.
Before, in 2008, the annual federal tax revenue represented 27% of public debt or public debt was 3.68 years of federal tax revenues.

Now, in 2015, the annual federal tax revenue is 16.9% of public debt or public debt represents 5.9 years of federal tax revenues.

Only it was not worse because trillions of dollars were printed. This impression was because the dollars printed actually are revenue needed to fund the bulk breakdown of the entire American banking system, revenues that would be achieved by issuing new government bonds, as there wouldn't be buyers for purely physical shortage of people in such large quantities and also for lack of buyers because of the risk that it would represent for investment. Thus, printing money occured simply because there wouldn't be those who could afford so many trillions of dollars of public spending to recover USD 4.4 trillion in actual damages which are actually a lost leverage basis of standardized or derivatives business that - if were followed Basel rule - would represent potential losses of up to 53 trillion of dollars, and the rules of Basel at that time were not being followed, the maximum leverage allowed for business (12X) was being circumvented, with cases of 35X and even 100X.
Thus, the government was forced to print money to save the banking sector block (the trillions of losses on real estate business accounted for an amount greater than the value on the stock all the country's banks added, was in practice as if all the banks in the country all had broken).
There was an inflation gap in 2008-09 with products rising 100, 150% while the other like properties fell 30, 40, 50%. It was created then a huge distortion in the economy, produced by inflation generated by printing money, which made the price of imports rise. In official rates, manipulated, inflation has remained relatively low as usual, but in reality the situation experienced in the US in 2008-09 is something like what happened in 2013 to 2015 Brazil actually, even a bit worse. And it was objectified by the government. The idea was even produce inflation, for with the generalized prices of economy rising, nominal property prices in fall would have a small compensation in real terms, ie would fall, but not much.
The great danger of this strategy was to produce a high inflation at the point of making the public debt with zero interest an investment with a high level of damage, thus excluding investors and leading the country to default on the public debt. This situation happened in part. Instead of investors fleeing the titles, they stopped buying, as did the countries buyers of titles like China.

But the lack of buyers was the number one problem. There was problem number two, the flight of investors, which would further reduce the prices of securities, leading to a "herd effect". It was because of this that started the "quantitative easing," or QE, in the case the QE1, the QE2, the Twist operation and after the unlimited QE3 which reached its final stage now (mid-2015) considering the initial programming . And QE4 is an anticipated event in 2008 that has not yet begun.
The big investors began to flee the public debt bonds in 2006, when housing prices began to fall and the economist Nouriel Roubini had predicted the collapse. Then the price of gold began to rise, almost quadrupling in value taking into account the mid-2000s levels and the level it reached after the crisis, verging USD 2,000 an ounce.
From then on the space to flight of "treasuries" (the public debt) began to disappear, that is, investors began to stay without options and the mass abandonment of the bonds would lead to an unprecedented collapse. It began what was behoved call the "Great Recession", but in fact what began was a "New Great Depression", with potential to be infinitely worse than that happened in 1929.

What was tried to avoid in the United States since 2008 with money printing was precisely the situation in Greece. If she left the eurozone, the economy would fall into the void, imploding. Even with the adoption of the old currency, the drachma, would have hyperinflation because of the whole system reboot from a point of high turbulence: speculation, "overshooting" monstrous exchange, economic depression, very high public deficit and ungovernability. This would be the situation of the United States from 2008, if weren't printing money. This money printing, the QE, in practice means that the country "broke". And it was because of it all there was a strong military preparedness to contain an internal civil war because Confederate States would want to separate to escape the chaos, ceasing to be partially holders of federal obligations, freeing up from the chaos weight.

The index "Dow Jones Industrial" surpassed 18,000 points (in mid-2015), which in principle would denote a thriving economy recovering, but it is a lie, this high value was produced by inflation. This inflation is the same that made the highest public debt of USD 18 trillion not be so much greater in real terms than the initial debt of USD 9.2 trillion in 2008, but at the same time is the same inflation that denounces the very serious economic situation in terms of activity when taking as reference the collection of taxes: the $ 3.1 trillion federal taxes collected annually today represent at most the same as the $ 2.5 trillion in 2008, actually represent less, ie, in terms of reckoned economic activity through the collection of taxes, the situation is worse than that experienced in 2008, that is, the economy has grown since then nothing, only the value of financial assets, debt and storage, all due inflation produced by printing money, that is, everything is just an illusion, trillions of dollars have been issued over 7 years and the country simply did not move with the public debt increased 99% in nominal terms and economic activity getting in even lower than the 2008 level.
So, no more shaking the global economy may suffer because the possibilities of action of governments and central banks have been exhausted. There was a monumental manipulation of the gold price long ago made by the Fed / USA, with the short selling of tons and tons of gold, which made the price artificially decrease from USD 2,000 an ounce to today's USD 1,100 (mid-2015). Weren't this move, the US would already have exploded.

The situation is that the global economy is on the tightrope, is on the apex of the knife blade ... Any movement and will be the end.
Not is only the current public debt. Future liabilities such as pension deficits not accounted for in this time threaten the states. In Europe, in 2011, the ECB, the European Central Bank, almost threw in the towel. It was decided on a loan for 3 years to failed banks. Three years have passed and it reached 2014 in the same situation, then central bank threw the towel, with the ECB starting to buy bonds of countries such as did the Fed. It arrives to the situation of Greece (it would be necessary to do a stroke of money printing with replacement of the entire Greek debt securities by others with 50 years of maturity). What has happened is that the situation has simply been postponed, as did the Fed on US situation.

The printing of money had as objective to prevent the decomposition of the derivatives leverage base of more than USD 100 trillion, something that overwhelms the ability to bailout of any government, even the US. Capitalism simply imploded and put under threat of extinction entire states, jeopardizing civilization itself.
This is then the subject of the next book that is in preparation and will be available here for download when ready.
We are not here supporters of the extreme right or the extreme left. We're just capitalism's supporters on the condition that is honestly governed. Moreover, we are also supporters of the idea of global government, today a basic requirement to avoid constant economic turmoil that surpass the intervention capacity of the States. Global governance is an idea attacked by all ideological fronts, they preach that be a dominating strategy, what is true. But, paradoxically, it is something necessary in view of the globalized world.

Other key information today to readers: This website is not "petista" (PT is the Lula's party and "petista" is who is of the PT party), is anti-PT to the extreme. But this site is also against the oligarchic system that has always existed and that makes the State be a lie. The PT was against it when it started and now is part of the estament (the "establishment"), ie, the PT allied to the oligarchies and built the strongest civil dictatorial system ever seen in history, filling with corrupts all levels and instances of State. Communism is against oligarchic estament as well, but we are not communists. We advocate only that the Constitution be complied with in a serious way, ie, positions should be filled honestly by honest people, just that (what is enough to progress and social peace, the common good). This is a problem in the US too, but much less severe, and that's what led to the chaos of Enron in 2001 and 2008 chaos: promiscuity between government and business.
Other relevant information is also this: this work is just a hobby, it's what we would like to see, read and hear in the media, which no longer exists in Brazil, except for one or another site. While it may be a contribution to that uninformed become aware of the situation and act in support of democracy, law, order, authority, the State, in this regard is a useless work. The share of people with political consciousness in Brazil does not reach 0.5% of the people, so that by more successful that be obtained, will be-talking-to the walls. Thus, the information posted here are just for the pleasure of discussing the issues and is designed for those who also like to debate ideas. The Brazilian decay due to the ignorance of the people was already subject portrayed in our book published in 2000 (and available for download here). The current situation is infinitely worse, although media repeats the mantra that people today have more political awareness. That's a lie. The people is over, no longer exists more and for a long time. Lula's election in 2003 was a clear demonstration that at that time Brazil had already been ruined. His permanence in power for over a decade showed it also, showed how the people were dumber each time more and more. Thus, the idea here is to discuss the issues just for hobby, for the few cats pinged lucid still left over to enjoy as well.

That's why we also decided to prepare this next book about the US crisis. The first world has entered a brutal decline phase and the result is what we already know: the third world, the end of the Western way of life, with the strong democracies of Europe and North America turning into rotted civilizations in decline as Brazil. We came to the twenty-first century modernity, but what is seen is a medieval decay.
 

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